There’s just no strategy here. The potential rationales for the tariffs are all shaky at best.
Inclusive Growth’s Emily Gee
Gee painted a grim picture of the toll these policies will take, with the average American family expected to pay up to $3,800 more per year due to rising prices on imported goods. And as tariffs on Chinese goods escalate, some items could see prices double. This comes at a time when the U.S. economy is already teetering on the brink of recession, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 45% chance of a downturn. Economists are also warning of stagflation, where inflation rises while economic growth slows.
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What’s more troubling, Gee explained, is the lack of a coherent strategy behind the tariffs.
“There’s just no strategy here,” she says. “The potential rationales for the tariffs are all shaky at best.”
One commonly cited reason for the tariffs is the fight against fentanyl, but Gee pointed out the argument doesn’t hold up.
“More fentanyl comes in through the U.S.-Mexico and Canada borders, and it’s often smuggled in small packages—tariffs on Chinese goods aren’t addressing that issue,” she explains. “The $800 exemption on Chinese goods further weakens the argument that the tariffs are genuinely about curbing the opioid crisis.”
The real motivation, Gee argued, seems to be rooted in a mischaracterization of trade balances.
“Donald Trump’s entire narrative around trade deficits is a lie, or at best a misrepresentation,” Gee says. “The U.S. has not had a trade surplus in goods in decades, and while it does have a surplus in services, the rhetoric about trade imbalances doesn’t match reality. Even the idea of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs is unrealistic, as it would require long-term, semi-permanent tariffs—something the administration is not committed to.”
So, if it’s not about addressing fentanyl or trade imbalances, what’s the point? Gee wonders if the tariffs might simply be a negotiation tactic. But the lack of a clear strategy still leaves American families caught in the crossfire.
“Who benefits here? Rich people,” Gee says. “Trump’s policies seem to favor the wealthiest Americans, with little regard for the impact on regular citizens.”
